The High Cost of an Unpredictable Leader

Posted on May 24, 2011

Chaos at the top of an organization is a recipe for disaster. Learn about the three types of unpredictable leader, underlying causes for the behavior, four paths toward resolution and methods of coping if it’s your boss who’s unpredictable.

Are you a surprise to your subordinates? Or do they know you, know what you’ll say, what you’ll want, how you’ll react?

In an ideal world, leaders convey the mission and vision of the organization with such great clarity that their teams can make excellent decisions on their own, always executing the mission, moving toward the vision. These leaders motivate their teams to perform at high levels. They are perceived as stable, self assured and focused.

Similarly, throughout the ranks of the organization are manager-leaders who train their people to analyze situations the same way they would, using the same best practices the manager-leader uses, effectively acting as an extension of that leader.

Subordinates, generally seeking to please, listen carefully, then look for signs that they are on the mark and are pleasing the boss. Early in their careers, or when new to their positions, they check in frequently. Given consistent predictable responses from the boss, they soon begin to work independently, knowing they are on track. The boss is freed to attend to other matters, and to scale his or her influence as appropriate.

All this breaks apart when the boss seemingly flip-flops, and what was right is now wrong. Confidence is shaken and everyone goes back to “training mode” at best, waiting to be given instructions. The whole notion of building a strong team to leverage the time and energy of the leader atrophies, and instead, he or she creates a cadre of administrative assistants. Any real executives quit.

I’ve seen three types of unpredictability: all are distracting and detrimental.

Emotional Unpredictability. The leader is moody, so people wait for the right time to approach him or her. There are times when the leader is affable, but at other times look out! The constant volatility reduces communication and approachability.

Strategy and Execution Unpredictability. One week the instructions are to go in one direction; the next week things are changed or even reversed. This inconsistency can echo through many levels of the team, destroying morale and focus. My definition of unpredictability does not include well planned and communicated strategic changes, or effective reactions to known, obvious changes in the situation.

Participation Unpredictability. Many leaders have a role to play in decision making and execution, yet when their team turns to them, they are not in the office, not available, or perhaps not willing to offer their help and guidance as they had previously.

Don’t think this advice on unpredictability is only about the chief executive. Each reader should consider the people above them, those at their level, and leaders below them. You might even examine the organization’s future leaders, who are in a formative time for their predictability in future leadership roles.

From my experience in the field, I think there are three underlying causes of unpredictability:

1. Weak Emotional Intelligence. One of the most frequent causes of unpredictability lies in the leader being unaware of or unable to manage his or her emotions. Then the stresses of running the organization emerge, manifesting as moodiness and inconsistency.
2. Inexperience. The second common cause is that the leader/manager is in¬experienced, and frankly isn’t sure what to do. One day they pick a course of action, but are soon convinced they were wrong, and choose a different direction. Usually this is compounded by a fear of admitting that they are “over their heads”, lessening the likelihood of making collaborative decisions or getting helpful advice.
3. Intentional Dominance Tactic. On rare occasions, the leader likes to dominate and to keep the confidence of those around him low. This “keep them off balance” approach never produces a healthier organization, but might be useful for inflicting wounds upon marketplace competitors.

When leadership unpredictability rears its head, the resolution generally follows four paths, and my favorite, by far, is the first:  becoming predictable.

Self Improvement/Self Discipline. The leader can choose to change their behavior and become predictable. They can learn to have and use more emotional intelligence, they can seek coaching about their behavior and they can seek help in areas where they feel inexperienced and unsure. First they must become aware of their unpredictability (many are not), and then they must embark on the change. But this is not an easy change, and it takes a person with fierce determination to make progress. They might not make a complete turnaround, but even a 10% or 20% improvement can be significant. I’ve titled this “self improvement” not because they must go it alone (they don’t), but be-cause the only person who can “make them change” is themselves. They may get the signal from the boss, but they’ve really got to want it. Consider using a 360˚ survey on emotional intelligence (there are several), and consider using a coach to interview direct reports and collect feedback.

Ejection from the organization. Some leaders aren’t going to change and if their behavior is toxic to the organization, fire them. Enough said.

Insulate the problem leader’s bad behaviors. A strategy, if the problem leader is unchangeable or too good in other ways to fire, is to surround them with people who can “take it” and who will insulate the rest of the organization from the worst of it. This might be possible when moodiness is the key problem, but is more difficult for other kinds of unpredictability. A CEO could hire a strong top team and primarily interact with them, avoiding too much unrehearsed interaction with the rest of the staff. Some temperamental leaders will “close their office door” when in a bad mood in an effort to shield those around him during bad moods.

Accept the distraction, and the decreased performance that results. There are many organizations which are owned by such unpredictable leaders, or which choose to tolerate them. The drama that surrounds them and the dysfunction it causes may be a price that ownership is willing to pay. If the organization is meeting its owners’ objectives, then who is to say that things must change? But I can’t say I love this option.

One way to reduce unpredictability is to plan carefully up front, with the use of experts or experienced domain specialists in the process. If such planning is done, and people with the critical experience have been involved, the plan itself becomes a bulwark against strategic flip-flopping.

This essay is about your boss?  I’m often asked what to do if it’s your boss who is unpredictable. The first and most obvious is to think about changing jobs. I’ve seen over and over again that the people whose careers move fastest have bosses who are great mentors and who model the kind of behavior that very successful people have. If your boss doesn’t qualify, think about moving on.

The most common strategy is mood timing – popping in with key requests or issues when the boss is in a good mood. This makes all the sense in the world, provided there are enough good moods!

Another key method is to confirm and reference the baseline strategy/plan, and place your request/initiative/issue in the context of an agreed upon plan. For example, at your weekly 1:1 with your boss, you reconfirm the urgency of getting the new product designed and released in three weeks. The boss agrees, and even trumpets the urgency more. Then you present your initiative to speed the process along further. It will be difficult for the boss to flip flop onto some other priority at that point.

Similarly, putting key initiatives in writing, referencing the vision/mission and key assumptions lays the groundwork for defending a decision against a surprise. Your boss, faced with clear logic based on accepted company priorities will be more likely to “stay the course”.

If an entire organization knows clearly what the leader wants, and in fact what the leader would say if confronted with most decisions, then that leader has succeeded in truly attaining leverage. One of the most important elements for attaining this goal is predictability.